As conflict continues to loom between Iran and the United States, Tehran is facing an increasingly acute military situation. Iran posses a large and comprehensive missile and drone force capable of reaching all United States military bases in the region in addition to Israel. As seen in the 12-day war, Tehran has the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the region. This ability was demonstrated with multiple strikes through the period of conflict in June 2025 leaving 32 Israeli civilians dead according to the Times of Israel.
Iran features thousands of SRBM (short range ballistic missiles) and MRBM (Medium range ballistic missiles), some capable of 2,000km in range, easily having the capacity to deliver large payloads across Israel and the surrounding region. The Khorramshahr and Emad missiles both feature this range, with the Emad having a potential 500 meter accuracy according to CSIS. Although not extremely accurate, the amount available to their disposal makes any volley a highly dangerous event.
In the event of war, Tehran would want to maintain a sizable missile force to prop up their own escalation ladder. This allows them to include multiple threats in the later parts of a conflict which could pose as a deterrence for Washington to continue. In doing so, Iran would want to keep their road-mobile launch vehicles in a safe area away from incoming Israeli/US offensive actions. In the 12-day-war, Tehran’s ability to perform large scale strikes on Israeli was greatly damaged by the fact they lost multiple launch vehicles, causing their missile volleys to dwindle
Despite the extensive missile forces Iran has present, this isn’t the only option to their advantage. Iran has affiliation with multiple terrorist-proxy forces dispersed throughout the region. Although most have been battered in the recent conflicts since October 7th, 2023, most still maintain a visible threat. One such example is the Houthis in Yemen, which have continued to demonstrate their capabilities, potentially harming Washington’s interests in the region.
This is a dominant strategy for Iran, although it depends on the willingness and capabilities Yemen still features since the continuous strikes which have since occurred after their continued campaign on global shipping from multiple other countries.
Alongside this, another choke point Iran has against their adversaries is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has a well-developed anti-shipping missile capability. The Noor is an example of this, with a range of 120km and potential speed near 0.9 Mach (1100 KM/h or 690 MP/h). This would be a more risky option for Iran, with potential greater consequences if such operation was to materialize. Risking further damage to the regime may be something they seek to avoid, especially if initial strikes are successful in regards to decapitation of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp) forces or other senior members of government.
Another option for Tehran is a campaign against oil facilities across the region. This would inflict the greatest damage to the region, although likely leading forces from the Gulf States being brought into the conflict, widening the strike package against Iran. This situation is undesirable for Tehran as it would bring a wider threat to the IRGC. Despite this, targeting these specific facilities would offer a more substantial effect to the region.
In any large scale conflict, Tehran would seek an option which provides the greatest deterrence whilst also offering a potential chance for an off-ramp. The extensive missile forces present alongside the political situation within the country makes it difficult to view potential operations Iran could conduct.
In regards to the United States and Israel, both have begun preparation including deploying an extensive array of air defense including Patriot and THAAD systems, in order to protect against damage to their forces or civilian population centers.
