The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate risk (Level 4/5) today in an all hazards type severe weather day for portions of eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois. Within this risk, there is a 15% CIG (Conditional Intensity Group) 2 for Tornadoes. What this means, is that within a 25 mile radius of hose in that risk, there is a 15% chance of an EF3 tornado, which would indicate winds between 136-165 mph, or 219-265 kph. Tornadoes aren’t the only risk today though, as there is also a 45% wind risk, which would indicate a good chance of severe wind gusts of over 60 mph or 64 kts. Finally, there is also a 30% CIG 1 risk for Hail, which means that there is a 30% chance of hail that is 2+ inches in size, or about the size of a hen egg.

The reason why this severe weather set up is so interesting, is that as of writing there is a line of storms going through Central Illinois. What this should do is limit the atmosphere and it’s ability to recover instability to make this outbreak more widespread. Unfortunately, even with that line of storms going through up north, meteorologists are still very confident in the main moderate risk. Overall, it has been shaping up to be a big severe weather impact day.

Due to the severe weather forecasted, over twenty school districts within the St. Louis metro either have closed, or will close early today. If you are placed under a warning today, ensure you are sheltering in a sturdy building, in the lowest interior room with no outside walls. Make sure you are wearing or have closed toe shoes ready, and bring a helmet if you can! If you are caught driving, do not shelter under an overpass. Being under an overpass during any type is dangerous as the overpass almost acts as a tunnel for wind and rain.

The Faytuks Weather team will be monitoring this event throughout the day, and posting updates to the twitter as we can.