This weekend is shaping up to be a historical severe and fire weather weekend in the central US. Over the next four days, the Storm Prediction Center has two Critical Fire Risks, and one Extreme Fire Risk, along with three straight Enhanced risks for severe weather, along with a 15% contour for severe weather on Tuesday (Equivalent to a Slight Risk).

Starting with the Fire Weather. Fire Weather is when a combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, high temperatures, and high winds all mix together to create conditions that are how we get those massive wildfires. The biggest day for the conditions, are on Sunday. This is when that Extreme Fire Risk is in effect for portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, along with far east New Mexico. Winds are forecasted to be sustained between 25-30 mph (40-48 kph), with a relative humidity forecasted to be between 5-15%. Wildfires have already ravaged parts of the Texas panhandle, including in Randall County, where the Hunggate Fire has already burned for 14,000 acres and as of writing, is only 40% contained. Also as of writing, fires are starting to spark in the Oklahoma panhandle, due to dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorms are storms in which thunder and lightning occur, but any rain evaporates before it reaches the ground due to atmospheric conditions.

Moving onto Severe Weather, there are three straight days of enhanced risks (Level 3/5). For today, the risk is centralized over parts of northern Kansas, far northeast Colorado, and southern Nebraska. Today, the biggest concern is for strong winds and large hail, though a strong tornado is also possible. How today plays out, will also have an impact on tomorrow’s potential Tornado Outbreak.

For Tomorrow, there’s an Enhanced risk with a 15# (15% chance of an EF2+ tornado) over the Iowa/South Dakota/Nebraska border. The day is expected to start out with isolated supercells, before forming a line going across the region, bringing strong winds (potentially 75+ mph) and large hail. The general area for those supercells is extremely narrow. The bowing segment is forecasted to be going from northeast Colorado, through central Kansas, and heading northeast through towards Sioux City.

For Monday, for the first time since the introduction of the system earlier this year, a 30## (30 CIG2), indicating that severe weather is extremely likely. This includes the risk of large hail (2+ inches) and strong to intense (EF2-EF3+) tornadoes. While we aren’t entirely sure on how it will play out, mainly due to uncertainty in storm mode (will it be super cellular, or remain linear), it is shaping up to be a historic day.

Tuesday is mostly unknown at this time, due to seeing how the rest of this weekend plays out. At the time of writing, it’s expected to be a mostly damaging wind/hail threat.

The Faytuks Weather Team will be monitoring this weekend, and will be updating both here on the website, and on the twitter.