Poland and the Baltic states are tightening security around power, gas and other critical infrastructure amid warnings that Russia could stage an attack designed to appear Ukrainian, raising fears of a provocation aimed at creating confusion inside NATO.

Lithuanian officials say intelligence assessments indicate Moscow is considering using captured Ukrainian-made drones in a false-flag operation against the Baltic region. Officials fear such an attack could make attribution difficult and fuel political disputes over how NATO should respond.

Lithuania has deployed military personnel to help police protect strategic energy sites, including its liquefied natural gas terminal, an oil products terminal, a key electricity link with Poland and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant.

Latvia has also increased protection around critical infrastructure, including a hydroelectric dam on the Daugava River near Riga and the Incukalns underground gas storage facility. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs previously said intelligence pointing to a Russian threat had prompted additional security measures and requests for stronger NATO air defenses.

In Poland, energy companies are reviewing contingency plans for gas supplies while authorities increase protection around electricity infrastructure. The developer of Poland’s first nuclear power plant has also reported forged company documents that it said could be traced to somewhere east of Poland, prompting an investigation involving security services and law enforcement.

The warnings go beyond the prospect of physical damage. A Baltic intelligence official told Reuters that assessments point to the possibility of an operation intended to trigger political confusion among NATO members by making responsibility for an attack difficult to establish. Another regional official cautioned that intelligence warnings do not mean an attack is certain or imminent.

Polish and Baltic leaders have issued similar warnings in recent weeks about possible Russian sabotage or limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in July that intelligence indicated potential attacks could target energy and transport infrastructure, though no specific target or timeline had been identified.

Russia has rejected the allegations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described Western warnings about clandestine Russian attacks as scare tactics intended to justify a larger NATO military presence near Russia.

The possibility of manipulated attribution adds another layer of risk to any future drone strike, explosion or infrastructure failure in the region. Investigators would need to establish not only what platform was used, but where it was launched, who controlled it and whether recovered components genuinely point to the actor they appear to implicate.