A potentially extremely dangerous day is possible today throughout portions of the central US. This follows after a damaging tornado occurred yesterday near St Libory Nebraska, where two homes were destroyed.

Today, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Moderate, with EF2-3+ tornadoes likely. Within this moderate risk, they have issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch, in portions of northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Some big cities included in this watch are Salina and Manhattan Kansas. On this watch, there’s an 80% chance of 2 or more tornadoes, and an 80% chance of at least 1 significant tornado (EF2+). Not only are tornadoes a massive concern, there’s also a very good risk for hail exceeding 4+ inches in diameter, around the size of a softball. In the mesoscale discussion posted before the watch was issued, it was stated that “A favorable environment for all severe hazards–including very-large/giant hail and strong to intense tornadoes–will develop through the afternoon.”

Along with the moderate risk, there are also active fires located in southern California, along with an extremely critical fire risk in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, portions of far east New Mexico, and far southwestern Kansas. The Sandy Fire, located just south of Simi Valley, California, has burned as of writing, 139 acres. An Evacuation order is in place for Simi Valley zones 32, 33, 34, and 35, all being in the Go phase. Zones Simi Valley 31, Thousand Oaks 06 and 07, are all in the Set phase. Simi Valley is also the location of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, which is just outside of zone Simi Valley 31.

The Faytuks Weather team will be monitoring all of these threats throughout the rest of the day and update as needed.

This weekend is shaping up to be a historical severe and fire weather weekend in the central US. Over the next four days, the Storm Prediction Center has two Critical Fire Risks, and one Extreme Fire Risk, along with three straight Enhanced risks for severe weather, along with a 15% contour for severe weather on Tuesday (Equivalent to a Slight Risk).

Starting with the Fire Weather. Fire Weather is when a combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, high temperatures, and high winds all mix together to create conditions that are how we get those massive wildfires. The biggest day for the conditions, are on Sunday. This is when that Extreme Fire Risk is in effect for portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, along with far east New Mexico. Winds are forecasted to be sustained between 25-30 mph (40-48 kph), with a relative humidity forecasted to be between 5-15%. Wildfires have already ravaged parts of the Texas panhandle, including in Randall County, where the Hunggate Fire has already burned for 14,000 acres and as of writing, is only 40% contained. Also as of writing, fires are starting to spark in the Oklahoma panhandle, due to dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorms are storms in which thunder and lightning occur, but any rain evaporates before it reaches the ground due to atmospheric conditions.

Moving onto Severe Weather, there are three straight days of enhanced risks (Level 3/5). For today, the risk is centralized over parts of northern Kansas, far northeast Colorado, and southern Nebraska. Today, the biggest concern is for strong winds and large hail, though a strong tornado is also possible. How today plays out, will also have an impact on tomorrow’s potential Tornado Outbreak.

For Tomorrow, there’s an Enhanced risk with a 15# (15% chance of an EF2+ tornado) over the Iowa/South Dakota/Nebraska border. The day is expected to start out with isolated supercells, before forming a line going across the region, bringing strong winds (potentially 75+ mph) and large hail. The general area for those supercells is extremely narrow. The bowing segment is forecasted to be going from northeast Colorado, through central Kansas, and heading northeast through towards Sioux City.

For Monday, for the first time since the introduction of the system earlier this year, a 30## (30 CIG2), indicating that severe weather is extremely likely. This includes the risk of large hail (2+ inches) and strong to intense (EF2-EF3+) tornadoes. While we aren’t entirely sure on how it will play out, mainly due to uncertainty in storm mode (will it be super cellular, or remain linear), it is shaping up to be a historic day.

Tuesday is mostly unknown at this time, due to seeing how the rest of this weekend plays out. At the time of writing, it’s expected to be a mostly damaging wind/hail threat.

The Faytuks Weather Team will be monitoring this weekend, and will be updating both here on the website, and on the twitter.