On Sunday, September 27, The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) sailed from San Diego. The day after, the three ships that make up the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) followed her out of the harbor with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked onboard.

The Navy described the Roosevelt as conducting routine operations in the 3rd Fleet area. USNI News, however, reports the strike group is expected to move to US Central Command to relieve USS George Washington (CVN-73), one of the aircraft carriers currently in theater. No destination has been given for Makin Island as of yet, but it may substitute the Boxer ARG, which has been working in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean in support of the blockade of Iranian ports since March 18th. The unit which holds the 11th MEU It is due for relief, which the Makin Island may provide.

The Roosevelt and its escort makes up Carrier Strike Group 9. It is made up of five ships: The Roosevelt, the guided-missile destroyers USS Paul Hamilton, USS Decatur , USS Carl M. Levin and The Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Chosin, which will act as the air and missile defense commander for the group. A key role for a strike group that may active combat zone. Embarked aboard the Roosevelt is Carrier Air Wing 11. It brings a squadron of F-35C Lightning IIs, three squadrons of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, a squadron of EA-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes, MH-60R and MH-60S Seahawks, and a detachment of CMV-22B Ospreys. The Navy had previously said a medium unmanned surface vessel would deploy with the group for the first time. It has not yet confirmed whether that is still the case. The specific drone boat, the Seahawk was last seen pierside in San Diego.

The Makin Island ARG is centered around the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship “USS Makin Island”, operating alongside the San Antonio-class transport docks “USS John P. Murtha” and “USS Anchorage”. The Makin Island hosts the 13th MEU and F-35B Lightning IIs from Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 211, and MC-22-B Ospreys from Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 364 (Reinforced), giving the group both fixed-wing strike capability and rapid air assault capacity.

What is in Theater Now?

Two carriers are assigned to CENTCOM: The USS George Washington, the Navy’s Japan-based carrier, and the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), which left Norfolk on 31 March.

For now, only one of them is on station. The US Navy confirmed that the Bush arrived in Phuket, Thailand on Sunday, October 4 alongside the destroyer USS Delbert D. Black. It is the strike group’s first port call since leaving the East Coast in March, after supporting Operation Epic Fury and the blockade of Iranian ports for six months. The visit runs until 9 October and leaves Washington as the only US carrier in 5th Fleet for the first time since April. Anticipating for time in transit across the Indian Ocean, the Bush should return to the Arabian Sea again by the middle of October.

How long the transit takes

The distance between San Diego and the Arabian Sea is roughly 11,000 nautical miles. Accounting for the time the Roosevelt will need of to finish embarking Carrier Air Wing 11, the carrier strike group could reach the region in late October or early November.

The Makin Island will take longer. Amphibious ships cruise slower than carrier groups, and an arrival around mid- November looks to be more realistic. By then the Boxer ARG will have been deployed for around eight months, and ready for relief.

Three ways this could play out:

A straight swap

A straight carrier swap is the most likely scenario. The Roosevelt arrives and replaces the George Washington, which heads back to the Western Pacific while CENTCOM keeps the Roosevelt and Bush. The Bush is expected to be relieved in early 2027.

A surge to three

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that President Trump has told aides he expects a new bombing campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. Roosevelt’s arrival falls squarely in that window. If Washington is kept in the region once the Roosevelt arrives, the U.S. would have three carriers in CENTCOM in November, the same number it reached in April when the Bush joined the Lincoln and Ford in theater.

There are limits to how long that could last. Washington is the only carrier forward deployed in Japan, and 7th Fleet has been without her since the summer. Every extra week in the Middle East costs presence in the Pacific and adds to her maintenance backlog, so any hold is more likely to be measured. in weeks rather than months.

A temporary dip to one

This is the position today. With Bush in Phuket until 9 October, Washington is on her own. It is a rest stop for a crew that has been at sea for six months, and should not be read as a drawdown.

The amphibious picture is simpler. Makin Island is most likely heading to replace Boxer. A period where both ARGs overlap is possible if operations against Iran resume, as is Makin Island being held in the Western Pacific, but neither looks likely at this stage.

Who relieves Bush

Bush reaches nine months deployed at the end of December. The next carrier available from the East Coast is USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), which came out of an extended maintenance period in April and has been working up since.

Eisenhower got under way on 28 September for Tailored Ship’s Training Availability and Final Evaluation Problem, the step before the Composite Training Unit Exercise that certifies a strike group for deployment. TWZ has reported her deployment is scheduled for the first half of 2027. If the Navy pushes, a January departure is possible, which would put Bush on station until late January or February and close to ten months deployed.

That timeline carries some risk. On the same day she sailed, an EA-18G Growler from VAQ-130 went over the side after an arresting wire broke during landing. Both aviators ejected and were recovered, and several sailors on the flight deck were injured. The cause is under investigation. If it points to a wider problem with the arresting gear rather than a single cable, carrier qualifications could slip and push the schedule to the right.

What to watch

Sightings or AIS from Roosevelt and Makin Island near Hawaii, Guam, Singapore or the Malacca Strait will give the best guide to their arrival dates. With the Phuket visit confirmed, the question is how quickly Bush returns to station, which will show how long CENTCOM runs on a single carrier.

The clearest signal will be Washington. If she is still in 5th Fleet in late November, that points to a deliberate surge rather than a slow handover. On the East Coast, the start of Eisenhower’s COMPTUEX and the findings of the arresting gear investigation will set the date for Bush’s relief.

Sources: TWZ, Reuters, Stars and Stripes, uscarriers.net. Arrival dates are estimates based on typical transit times.